May 9, 2015
Prooffreader has recently published an ‘attitude analysis’ of tweets related to feminism. One of his claims is that sentiment, as measured by traditional sentiment analysis techniques, is a poor predictor of attitude. To make this claim, he had a team (of humans) hand-classify 1000 tweets into one of three categories: pro-feminist, anti-feminist, or neither. The full analysis is available on Github, and it includes this plot:
This plot shows that there is basically no relationship between the sentiment of a tweet and whether or not the tweet is pro or anti feminist. This is an important lesson for organizations that use sentiment analysis to gauge the public’s attitude about their brand. What’s interesting is to look at the specific tweets that have positive sentiment but anti-feminist attitude and those that have negative sentiment but pro-feminist attitude. Prooffreader gives these hypothetical examples of the latter case:
1. Man, do I ever hate feminists.
2. I hate that my mom does not like the word ‘feminism’.
The data set contains cases showing real-world break down in usefulness of basic sentiment analysis when the real goal is to capture attitudes. In all of the following examples, the attitude was determined by human classifiers, but the sentiment by the textblob package for Python.
Examples of anti-feminist attitudes expressed using positive sentiment
Any men shedding a tear at the end of #page3 , make sure you bottle them. #Feminists get thirsty….
I liked a @YouTube video http://t.co/r6xWBbR1ER Re: Potty-Mouthed Baby Feminists
Feminist article: don’t call me “working mommy” because we don’t call men “working daddy.” So? My MOM title is my most esteemed title. ~Mom
@DoeringNorman @Oneiorosgrip let’s be accurate here norm- when dealing with feminists- polite or not if you disagree,you are their enemy
Wait.. So the feminists siding with amber rose and slandering the lil kardashian for being in a relationship with a pedophile?
Slate Sex Trafficking Post Proves Feminists Can\u2019t Be Happy Even When You Agree With Them http://t.co/VvbbiR9Vk3 #tcot
Feminist gon kill Chuck lmao
@officialncc1701 ALRIGHT I GUESS COULD BE BETTER IF THEY WOULDNT SPOIL MY TV SERIES AND NOT ARGUE ABOUT FEMINISM WITH ME
@Sepko01 @kav_p Someone needs a pat on the shoulder. “It’s ok, bud. Just sit still and the feminists can’t see you.”
@elliottkrista @HisFeministMama The more you dumbass Feminists fight amongst yourselves, the more the MRAs laugh at you. Don’t you get that?
I just realized, the way that the anti-gamers and feminists promote Towerfall is a perfect allegory to their crumbling narrative. #GamerGate
@ONLINEPIXI3 but the “feminists” will love it.
I’m sure that over 100 feminists have me blocked.
#ThankYouEllenPao you have proven that women and minorities can be in power and can achieve amazing things and didn’t need #feminism for it.
Lol see these women are trolling, no other explanation “@Ntiana_: So real quick does feminism throw culture out the window ? Yes or No”
So many otherwise intelligent people completely lose their minds when it comes to feminism. So many parallels between that and religion.
@Ashykneesirwin Okay so if you don’t feel ashamed, why do you need feminism? To stop men from making jokes about women?
be peddled in the name of feminism. I am glad we all could see those nuances. However, where is this vigilant mass when it comes to 3/n
twitter feminism in a nutshell lol http://t.co/8g3MhdOGEq
So many feminists on twitter so keen on protecting the rights of people who can pop out babies they think it’s OK to trample my boundaries.
@RaasAFC @Faisal_RedDevil Tbf what we said was true. And we shut her up. Feminism is a disgrace, mostly so for women like yourself.
too many attention whores on instagram all in the name of feminism
we need meninism more than feminism because men are the ones who found this world so \u2615\ufe0f
@Niki8954 I admire your optimism, but in my experience, feminism is about convincing women that they’re more oppressed than they are.
Examples of pro-feminist attitudes expressed using negative sentiment:
‘Isn’t feminism when u hate females’ – my brother, 2015
@siIentwords @honestfandom HeForShe is about gender equality/feminism. He wouldn’t have gone if he was against it. What’s so wrong with him+
It’s sad. People are so arrogant and insecure that they think feminism is about not needing a man.
Why would you date a boy who thinks feminism is stupid
@jessepurtell and you should not say you hate all feminists because one video you saw of a women being disrespectful.
Real #feminist will show support for @RealCytherea. This Violent Gang Rape I’d atrocious. http://t.co/5nnhEr3HUt via @returnofkings
I don’t understand why feminists are being ignored or hated upon, they’re fighting for something that has been ignored for decades????
@BigFashionista @Steve___Miller I hate when anyone does this! Feminism is NOT the root of all evil. Discrimination is!
@PrisonPlanet Snowden still works for Booz/CIA, if you weren’t so obsessed with bashing feminism and Islam you might realize that, dumbass.
@drunkonjbxcbxag @tropicaljustxn @Kayfeminist @Grxnde__Butera she has to be a troll account trying to be a feminist but insulting females+
@Eyebrows_13 ctfu I explained what feminism was and she was like “but all the women I see are angry at men, don’t shave, are spelly hippies”
The lesson from this is that a sentiment analysis that is too simplistic does not provide reliable information about attitudes toward a certain topic.
TLDR: MathWorks uses a cumbersome and error-prone DRM called MDCS to control the restrictions on their Parallel Computing Toolbox software for Matlab. The MDCS product is an abuse of the vendor lock-in that occurs when researchers invest years developing Matlab-based research code in an environment with gratis access to Matlab supplied by institutional licenses, and are subsequently squeezed for additional licensing fees for their (ostensibly) already licensed product when they need to run their code in parallel at scale. Research is harmed by lost time and/or unanticipated costs incurred directly because of Mathworks’ aggressive and unethical licensing strategies for MDCS.
Imagine that you are a young researcher who invests a great deal of time learning Matlab and creating Matlab codes for your research. The costs of using Matlab are covered by an institutional license provided by your University, or company so that you don’t have to think about them. As you grow as a researcher you tackle harder and harder computational problems that require greater and greater parallel computational power. After working very hard to develop your parallel code using Matlab’s Parallel Computing Toolbox software, you are ready to tackle your problem at scale: 20 cores, 100 cores, 1000 cores, 10,000 cores, depending on the hardware available to you, the nature of your research question, and the capabilities of your competitors. But, you encounter a problem that you didn’t expect: your institution has not paid to run parallel Matlab code at large scale and are unwilling to purchase the necessary licenses. You discover that you must pay unexpected costs of doing research with Matlab, or go through the tremendous efforts of porting your code to another technology.
The issue is MathWorks’ attitude toward distributed computing. Their attitude tells them that the cost of the software license should increase with the high performance computing capacity of their product. They have opted to go the route of per-worker licensing fees and technological restrictions on their product, both of which hurt the researchers who use their products and their research. While MathWorks may have identified an opportunity to create revenue by selling greater computational capacity, the additional costs and inconvenience to researchers does not reflect any additional development effort or cost to Mathworks. Research is pointlessly held hostage by Mathworks’ restrictive licensing policies.
I hope that this product review of Matlab Distributed Computing Server (MDCS) can be useful to everyone who makes decisions related to research computing software, both individual researchers who choose their development platforms and those responsible for institutional licenses. The issues with MDCS should not only be considered by people currently considering purchasing or using MDCS, but by any Matlab user who believes that their Matlab code may someday be used on a distributed computing platform. Moreover, many of the problems that I point out with MDCS are not unique to MDCS or Matlab, and some are fairly common and accepted software licensing practices that should nevertheless be questioned and criticised as they can have important impacts on research computing.
Who is paying for Matlab?
In my opinion, one of the core issues that has lead to this problem is the question of who pays for Matlab software licenses. In some cases, this cost is paid directly by the researchers who work directly with Matlab. However, in many (possibly most) cases, users are covered under various types of institutional licenses paid for by Universities, Colleges, Businesses and other organizations. The result is that the people who are responsible for the research, are often unaware of the costs of choosing to do that research with Matlab. Many institutions do not make the details of the license or the costs involved known to the researchers. From the researchers’ perspectives, the costs are covered and their use of Matlab is gratis. Often, the institutions negotiate licenses that contain many toolboxes and sometimes infinite simultaneous licenses for Matlab products. For researchers, this can create a harmful impression of freedom and obfuscate the costs and restrictions associated with using MathWorks products.
And so, students and young researchers invest their educational efforts into gaining Matlab skills and their research efforts into developing Matlab codes, unaware that they are doing something very expensive that may ultimately restrict their capacity to do research. Naturally, MathWorks encourages researchers to take advantage of these institutional licenses by promoting themselves on University campuses, and organizing free training/marketing workshops for their products. The result is a large number of research careers and research programs that are worryingly dependent on MathWorks products. So, there is a vendor lock-in problem. And then Mathworks abuses this lock-in with MDCS.
Licensing options for parallel Matlab
Most computational research programs grow in scope and eventually evolve to a point where the problems become too large to solve with serial code, and parallel computation capabilities become necessary. So, what options are available for a Matlab user to address this reality?
The first step is to invest in Matlab’s Parallel Computing Toolbox. This toolbox is currently listed on Mathworks’ website for $1000 on top of your existing $2150 standard individual Matlab license. The parallel toolbox gives you easy-to-use, high level constructs for unleashing parallelism in your Matlab programs. This is a good product if you don’t mind the price tag and the proprietary restrictions. Purchasing the toolbox does increase Matlab’s capabilities beyond the standard version, and the toolbox represents real development effort on MathWorks’ part to create the high-level parallel constructs and tools.
The drawback of the Parallel Computing Toolbox is that it contains digital restrictions that only permit it to operate with 12 cores or fewer on a single computer.
The reason for this limitation is not related to the technical implementation of the parallel toolbox. Currently, MathWorks uses an MPI distribution called MPICH2 (version 1.4.1p1). MPI (Message Passing Interface) is an open standard for distributed, parallel computing, and MPICH2 is an open source implementation of that standard which is released under a license which permits its (gratis) use for commercial, closed-source software products like Matlab. Matlab uses MPICH2 to implement the parallelism in the parallel toolbox, and this free software is designed with scalability on multi-node computer clusters in mind.
The reason for the technical limitation of 12 cores in the Matlab Parallel Computing Toolbox is a business decision by MathWorks to charge licensing fees based on the amount of parallel computing capability their users wish to unlock. They may have chosen other ways to inconvenience users into paying additional fees: restrictions based on maximum memory, restrictions based on maximum lines of source code, restrictions based on maximum number of variables used. A maximum number of workers is equally as arbitrary but is somehow easier to market in a culture where we have been trained to confuse software with private material goods that can’t be trivially copied as many times as we need.
MDCS does not really add functionality to Matlab so much as it partially removes technical limitations in the Parallel Computing Toolbox software. The Matlab Parallel Computing Toolbox (a pre-requisite product for using MDCS) contains the technology to provide scalable parallel computing capability to as many nodes as one can afford to put into a cluster, but this capability is intentionally restricted with technical measures. The design, and the purpose of MDCS is to limit the parallel scalability of Matlab software, not to provide it (MPICH2, the free software that it is built on, provides it). Therefore, I refer to MDCS as digital restrictions management (DRM) software.
The costs of MDCS licenses are not publicly available on the Mathworks website and are only available by requesting a customized quote. To give a ballpark idea, licensing for hundreds of workers (i.e. a medium sized computer cluster) will cost tens of thousands of dollars, with thousands of dollars of ongoing annual fees.
Is MDCS good software?
Unfortunately, in designing a product whose primary design goal is the enforcement of licensing restrictions, MathWorks has compromised their product’s usability and introduced a number of unnecessary and frustrating points of failure. The product that researchers deserve from MathWorks is a Parallel Computing Toolbox with no licensing or technical restrictions on the number of nodes or workers that can be used, so that Matlab users simply have a high-level interface to the MPI libraries. The MDCS product falls short of this hypothetical product not only in having restrictions on the number of workers that can be used, but also in terms of usability and stability.
With MDCS, you do not log in to the HPC cluster and submit your jobs as you would with other software. Instead, you open Matlab on your laptop or desktop computer, read the HPC site’s documentation on how to configure your computer to submit to the cluster, download integration scripts and install them onto your computer, set-up metadata folders both on your computer and on the cluster’s file system, and finally you are able to submit jobs from Matlab, provided that you did not make any mistakes. This is a poor software model for an HPC environment because the configuration, job logs, and metadata used by the software is distributed between two different systems controlled by two different groups of people (the HPC system, and the submission system). This model not only ensures that the number of points of failure is increased, but also that when a problem arises, investigating and solving it requires a greater effort coordinated between multiple parties. MDCS results in a significant overhead in labour to operate compared to a hypothetical Matlab product with an unrestricted Parallel Computing Toolbox.
MDCS uses metadata about the submitted jobs that are stored both on the cluster’s file system and on the user’s personal computer. This metadata must be synchronized between the two different systems. If the user wants to submit jobs from a different computer, or from a different version of Matlab on the same computer, this can cause corruption of the metadata. If the user submits jobs to a second MDCS system, the user must carefully manage two separate sets of integration scripts, and must also be careful to avoid corruption of the metadata. The corrupted metadata does not produce straight-forward errors, but rather strange behaviours and the presentation of misinformation to the user, and it is not always obvious that a problem has occurred. Some of these issues can be alleviated by taking special care to set up separate metadata folders for each combination of computer, Matlab version, and cluster that the user wishes to use. To switch between different sets of metadata folders, the user has to modify information in two places: the integration scripts for the target cluster, and the cluster profile. These metadata issues are not yet documented by Mathworks, and it is up to users to discover them by trial and error.
MDCS is also difficult to maintain from the HPC staff’s perspective, compared to ‘normal’ software. To modify some aspects of the software configuration on the cluster, simultaneous changes must be made to the MDCS configuration on the HPC system, as well as the integration scripts living on separate hard drives of many users. It can therefore be very difficult for HPC staff to deliver a reliable experience to researchers because improving the MDCS configuration may mean breaking their workflow of every user and forcing them to upgrade their local configurations before their jobs can run.
For many users, any type of distributed computing can seem complex and error-prone relative to regular desktop computing. An unrestricted Matlab Parallel Computing Toolbox could be an accessible entry point to distributed computing for many Matlab users, in addition to being a high-productivity research platform. It would not have the problems that I have described above and it would even require less development effort from Mathworks. However, instead of making distributed computing less complex, and less error-prone, MathWorks have done the opposite with MDCS.
The above-described problems with MDCS’s design makes it a poor choice for users of other programming languages looking for distributed computing tools, so I assume that these users aren’t the target market for MDCS given the high quality of available alternatives and the high costs of MDCS. Rather, MDCS is a product designed to extort money from locked-in Matlab users.
What else can researchers do?
There are a few workarounds that researchers have developed to try and do parallel computing without incurring the restrictions of Matlab’s MDCS licensing model. One method is to install an MPI distribution such as MPICH2 onto a computing cluster, and then compile wrappers to the MPI function calls using Matlab’s mex compiler so that they can be called from your Matlab program. Finally, using an institution’s many (possibly infinite) non-parallel Matlab licenses, one can launch many separate Matlab tasks that have the capability to communicate through MPI.
This technique works, but there are significant drawbacks. Software built this way is unable to use Matlab’s wonderful debugging capabilities on the parallel system. It is also unable to fully use other parallel debugging tools because the debuggers will be unable to see inside of Matlab’s proprietary binaries. Programs using MPI can be very hard to develop, debug, and maintain, and neither Matlab’s tools nor the tools used by MPI developers will work properly on the Matlab+MPI Frankenstein’s monster that has been created. Nevertheless, this is a common solution adopted by frustrated researchers.
Another technique is to use a cluster’s parallel file system to coordinate communication between separate non-parallel Matlab tasks instead of the network. Not only does this have the development, debugging, and maintenance problems discussed above, it also has slow performance because the file system is much slower than the network on a computer cluster.
Since Matlab contains technical limitations to limit its parallel scaling capacity and the only available products for parallel computing are the parallel computing toolbox and MDCS, any creative methods that a researcher might devise for achieving parallelism with Matlab outside of these official products is at risk of being seen by MathWorks as circumvention of a technical limitation. If so, they could argue that these techniques are unlawful under the infamous anti-circumvention provisions of the USA’s Digital Millenium Copyright Act or similar laws in other countries.
Finally, researchers who cannot continue their research because of Matlab licensing restrictions may choose to port their code to another programming language. This means redoing much of the development work that went into creating the research software in a different language that offers more freedom. Porting code can represent an incredible investment of labour that could be invested in research instead, but this effort may be well worth it for the potential freedom it can bring. There is a free software project called GNU Octave which attempts to be compatible with the Matlab programming language, presumably a response to the many ex-Matlab users who wish to compute with freedom while reducing the costs of porting their code to another system.
Mathworks uses a free software product to provide parallel scaling capacity for Matlab Parallel Toolbox, and then charges additional fees for the removal of arbitrary restrictions on that capacity through MDCS. The MDCS product is not appealing as a distributed computing platform because it is error prone and unnecessarily complex, resulting in considerable labour overhead in using it. The market for this product is not researchers looking for a general-purpose distributed computing platform, but researchers who are already locked-in to Matlab and for whom it is the only option. The costs of MDCS are very high relative to the costs of Matlab, the parallel computing toolbox, or the free software library that provides its parallel scaling capabilities. However, its costs are not transparent to researchers planning for a long-term software project. They are a secret that is only revealed to them through a customized quote at the time they are ready to run their software at larger scales. This makes planning in advance for the costs of distributed computing with Matlab something that is rarely done in practice, forcing researchers to absorb unanticipated expenses late in the software development cycle.
It is a fact of research computing that problem sizes are becoming larger and distributed computing platforms are becoming more and more common and accessible. The marketing for MDCS indicates that you can scale up to cluster computing without the expense and hassle of changing your code. This is a reminder from MathWorks to researchers to think ahead when writing your research software and choose technologies that scale to address the modern (distributed!) reality of research computing. You do not want to get burned by choosing the wrong technology and discovering that you can’t run your code on the same problem sizes as your competitors, or are unable to make use of the new parallel computing hardware that is always becoming available. With Matlab, the software scales, thanks to MPICH2, but the licenses do not. If you are a researcher, you should think ahead and choose a programming environment where the technology scales without the expense and hassle of changing your code, or your license.
Ultimately, I propose that the solution to this be that researchers and organizations that perform research divest in software products that arbitrarily restrict the capabilities of research code for want of more and more licensing fees. If there must be licensing fees, they should be tied to things that represent real development effort from the vendors. They should not represent the removal of arbitrary restrictions such as maximum number of characters in a source file, maximum number of workers, or anything else that might be dreamed up to inconvenience users into paying more.
From MathWorks, I would like to see the technical restrictions on the Parallel Computing Toolbox lifted so that it can scale with the full power of the free MPI distribution that fuels it. This model would improve the usability and stability of Matlab on distributed computing systems by removing restrictive DRM, and would serve to avoid damage done to research efforts for those who have chosen to use Matlab products. It would also reduce development costs on MathWorks part because the development of MDCS and restrictions on the parallel computing toolbox would not be necessary.
I understand that Mathworks and their products exist to make money, and I am not necessarily advocating for reducing the overall costs of parallel computing with Matlab for researchers or institutions, or recommending that MathWorks reduce their total revenue: they can charge a fair license fee for Matlab and an additional fee for the Parallel Computing Toolbox. What I am advocating for is the removal of harmful proprietary restrictions from the parallel toolbox that limit its ability to scale to multiple nodes and many cores, and the abandonment of an unethical business strategy that exploits researchers through vendor lock-in.
October 24, 2012
How long does a PhD take?
The question is critically important to current and prospective graduate students. The answer affects their ability to plan their educations, personal lives, personal finances, and careers. Deciding to do a PhD is a little bit like signing a cell phone contract that says how much you owe every month, but not when you get to stop paying. The nature of research means that the duration of a PhD is very uncertain. But, you would be foolish to start one without first learning about how long they take, at least on average. I was foolish like that.
Graduate programs attract students by competing with each other to offer graduate students appealing funding packages. But, graduate students can find themselves racing against the clock to finish their programs before these attractive offers run out. In a UBC PhD program, students who remain in their program after 4 years will find that they no longer have access to the four year fellowships, tri-council funding, or preferred TA hiring that attracted them to school in the first place. I was foolish like that. Perhaps it is necessary to cut students off so they don’t linger in the cushy student life forever. But, it is important to see if 4 years is a realistic goal that most students are actually able to achieve, or if the 4 year funding cliff is an unrealistic expectation that harms typical students for taking typical amounts of time to finish their program.
It is a very legitimate question to ask of an educational institution. Of course, the nature of research means that the length of a PhD is very uncertain. That’s to be expected. But prospective and current PhD students should have a realistic expectation of how long their degrees typically take. How many people take 4 years? How many take 5 years? How many take 6? Obviously, no one takes more than 6 years, UBC has a rule about that. It turns out that students and professors alike have a lot of misconceptions about the realities. It doesn’t help that UBC treats this information like its some kind of big secret.
I don’t know how long PhDs take at UBC. But, I did ask a lot of people, sent a lot of emails, did a lot of reading, analysed some data, and even made Freedom of Information Act requests. After all that, I had a small number of answers that didn’t agree with each other. I also had (I think) a number of people annoyed with me for asking too many questions that (I guess) students aren’t supposed to ask.
I was involved for two or three years (depending on how you count) in my department’s prospective-student-wooing open house. If those are any indication, “How long do graduate degrees take” is being asked by a large fraction of prospective students coming to UBC. The journey you are currently reading about started because I was disappointed with the answers they were getting. I heard a lot of answers from professors along the lines of “2 years for Masters and 4 years for PhDs, although, obviously, a few slackers take 5 years or more.” I didn’t think that was quite consistent with reality.
In fact, it isn’t quite true. But, I don’t think the professors are being intentionally deceptive. I think they selectively remember their all-star students who wrap up in 3 years, and then make excuses for why they shouldn’t include people who take a long time in their average. Student X didn’t work hard. Student Y had health problems. Student Z had to work part time to feed her family. Obviously, those aren’t ‘average’ students who should be included in the average. The problem is that the students are just asking, when they should be saying “show me the data.”
Show Me The Data
Eventually, a friend of mine discovered that UBC actually had some graduate student completion data up on the PAIR website. It has since been placed behind a password (thanks to me: read on, dear reader), but here it is. Since this is a story about how hard it is to find out how long PhDs take, I should mention that the data was in the form of an Excel spreadsheet with 31832 entries instead of something sensible like a database. If you ever want to frustrate someone into not looking at large volumes of data, use Excel.
Here is a description of the data from a representative of FOGS:
The spreadsheet you have been looking at represents a study undertaken using a subset of Admission cohorts – that is taking a subset of each admission years new intake and tracking them to completion. The report you are looking at amalgamates the 1995 – 2003 Admission cohorts and presents the outcomes of these students. For the Outcome, students may have Graduated, Left UBC, Transferred to another program, Still be in Program or are Unknown if we don’t know what’s happened to them.
This data would easily answer my question, except that it has apparently been corrupted. Among lots of other information, it contains three dates: Program start date, Program end date, and graduation date for each student. The amount of time a student spends in their program is the Program end date minus the Program start date. I noticed something funny about this quantity: About 30% of PhD students in the represented cohorts completed their programs in 2 years or less and not a single person in those cohorts completed their program in between 2 years + 1 day and 3.5 years. About 20% of every student who graduated finished in exactly 2 years to the day. There’s a very suspicious gap in the data between 2 years and 3.5 years. I asked FOGS about it. They responded:
[The students who finish in 2 years or less are] likely those that have come from other institutions to complete their studies at UBC or in very structured programs – but the majority graduate in the 4-7 year range (400; 559; 469; 246).
… If you break the TIP Years by CIP Division (the Statscan area of program study) you’ll see that the earlier graduants tend to be clustered in Education and Social Sciences. Social Sciences includes Psychology, a Department that streams students from Masters thru Doctoral levels which helps them complete in a timely (often quicker) fashion…
…It makes sense that very few students would complete in the 3rd year. The earlier 0-2 group are likely either transfers or in uniquely structured programs (ie: Education) where completion may occur more quickly than anticipated. The average time to completion (graduation) is just over 5 years.
Okay, it all makes sense now. Its Education and Psychology students. Except it’s not. Here’s the breakdown for the PhD students who finished their programs in 2 years or less:
10 business & management
75 Health Sciences
96 Social Science
Only 12 transferred from other institutions
This group of students is pretty statistically typical for UBC as a whole. They aren’t more likely to be education students as engineers or scientists or anything else.
The students aren’t demographically unusual in any way, but there is something highly unusual about them as a group: They wait an incredibly long time to graduate after their programs end. Sometimes, they wait almost 10 years. Here is a plot where the vertical axis is how long the student waited to graduate after the end of their program ([Grad date] minus [program end date]) and the horizontal axis is time in program ([program end date] minus [program start date]).
Here is the histogram of the two groups of students. Homework: Use your favourite statistical technique to discover how likely it is they were sampled from the same distribution.
I showed these plots to the above mentioned representative of FOGS and the response from UBC was to not answer me and place the data behind a password immediately so that students could no longer get at it. (No worries, I put it here on the web.)
Freedom of Information
I had hit a roadblock with FOGS and still didn’t know how long PhDs took. But UBC had a report from 2010 with the title “Graduate Student Completion Rates and Times.” Perfect. I asked for it along with another report. Apparently, it is top secret:
I’ve talked with the Dean’s Assistant and neither reports are available for public readings as they contain privileged information.
Of course, when someone from the public requests personal or top secret information, employees of public institutions are required by the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy act to inform them that an FOI request must be made to obtain the information. But, I guess they forgot. I made one anyway.
[Spoiler: It will turn out that neither report was top secret.]
FOI Requests and responses:
Request sent March 30, deadline May 17
1. Graduate Student Completion Rates and Times, March 2010, including all appendices
- Report was given June 5.
2. UBC Faculty of Graduate Studies 2011 External Review Self-Study, including all appendices
- Report available on the web. Appendices delivered on July 9th, except appendix 25 disclosure of which may have harmed the business interests of a third party
3. Any draft versions of the report Graduate Student Completion Rates
and Times, March 2010
4. Any raw data used in preparing the report Graduate Student
Completion Rates and Times, March 2010, in machine-readable format
such as a spreadsheet.
- “We were informed that draft versions of this report no longer exist in electronic or hard copy formats, and that the database containing the raw data for this report (drafts and final copy) is no longer available. Recreating that compiled data…would be extremely time consuming and would unreasonably interfere with our operations.”
[UBC: If you lost the data, don’t even fret about it. You can just download it again here.]
5. All records related to the CUPE 2278 union’s bargaining to extend
the preferred hiring preference for TAs. Date range is January 1, 2012
to March 30, 2012.
- 30 day extension requested on June 5
- 535 pages of responsive emails were identified, mostly emails between UBC staff. These were withheld in their entierty because all of them contained advice, recommendations, legal advice, would harm the right to personal privacy or would harm the financial or economic interests of a public body. Fair enough. I didn’t get them on July 9.
6. All records related to graduate student completion rates and times
in the date range January 1, 2012 to March 30, 2012
- “We have been informed that creating these records would involve compiling and analysing data, which would be extremely time consuming and would unreasonably interfere with our operations” June 5
All that work and all I got was some lousy appendices. Well, I also got the report that I wanted. The only really useful thing about it is that it is full of interesting plots like this:
Because FOGS lost the data used to compile this report, I have no way of knowing if it is affected by the problems I discovered above.
So, How Long Do PhDs Take?
It depends who you ask. It may be 4 or 5 years if you ask the professor-on-the-street. It may be just over 5 years on average if you ask FOGS. But, I’m writing this, so I guess we are asking me (i.e. I’m asking me).
I don’t trust FOGS’s data for the reasons outlined above. I believe that there is a problem with the program end date column. Dates in this column may be getting “toggled” prematurely (at or before 2 years) for about 30% of students in the cohort. I don’t know the reason, but the evidence is in the plots above. We can estimate the average completion time by avoiding this column for the corrupted group of students. [Grad date] minus [Start date] is one way, but it doesn’t account for the months that students spend after they finish waiting for a graduation ceremony to happen. We can account for this time by subtracting off the average of ([Grad date] minus [Program end date]) for the uncorrupted group (students who took more than 2 years to graduate). Here is the histogram compared to the one for (Program end date – program start date):
The average time in program according to this is about 5.5 years. This is about 6.5 months longer than the bizarre looking FOGS data would claim. You are welcome to believe FOGS instead of me, but it could cost you about $700 in tuition and a few months of your youth. I was foolish like that. Keep in mind that there are well known variations according to what type of program students are in. By the way, programs where students finish quickly are correlated with programs where students are well funded. I’ll let you think about that.
Is a four year funding model reasonable? At UBC, 78% of PhD students need more time. Is a 6 year hard limit on PhDs reasonable? At UBC, 27% of students need to write a letter explaining why circumstances beyond their control resulted in them being unable to complete their degree in a timely manner. Those percentages only include the students who actually graduate. As we can see in FOGS’s data, many more end up leaving for various reasons.
I have the following requests for my various audiences:
Professors and Staff: Please download the graduation data, analyse the outcomes of students who graduated from your program and post the results where current and prospective students can get it. Then, everyone will have answers tailored to their department.
Graduate students: Please ask for the data when you ask “how long will my graduate degree take?”. Don’t let anyone tell you the answer in words because they really don’t know. Definitely don’t believe any program length indicators that involve someone giving you money (scholarship lengths, preferred TA hiring, etc.).
UBC Representatives: Please return the graduation data to the people of BC. I’m really sorry that I plotted it. In my defence you trained me for way too many years to compulsively plot things. Will you forgive me? Funny looking data is much better than none at all, and people would rather get it from you than from me. Keep new data flowing all the time. This information affects people’s lives. Also, if you have any answers to the questions I’ve raised, please join the conversation in the comments below.
August 4, 2011
Starting in September, I will be teaching first year undergraduate students computational physics. Well, that’s the plan, at least.
Mark Guzdial has posted a sobering series of blog posts that highlight how difficult achieving that plan is going to be. Mark’s blog posts summarize PhD research performed by Georgia Tech graduate Danny Caballero.
We experimented with a computational component in this course last year as one aspect of a series of major reforms. Our goal was to provide a small taste of how computer programming can be used in physics problem solving because this idea is emphasized in their textbook. However, we didn’t want to get distracted from our main goal: teaching physics. We provided the students with working vPython programs and problems that could be solved by making minor and obvious changes to certain lines of code, or changes to initial conditions, for example. We collected feedback from the students that indicated that no one was satisfied with this treatment: most students were not interested in programming and were frustrated at being forced to work with code they didn’t understand while the students who did have an interest in programming were frustrated at the lame, unchallenging activities they were presented with.
This year, we have decided to make a commitment to teaching programming, giving more challenging tasks that will satisfy the students who are interested in learning programming, while providing proper instruction in programming ideas so that (hopefully) no one feels the code they are working with is mysterious or scary.
In the first blog post, Mark explains why our students are less likely to learn the physics content of the course. Basically, by spending time on teaching programming, we have less time to spend on the physics, and the physics naturally suffers.
Of course, the main goal of the course is the teach physics, but it is a mistake to think that should be the only goal. It is especially a mistake to think that the point of the course is to achieve high student performance on the Force Concept Inventory. This course is an enriched physics course where most of the students are expected to go on to major in physics where they will take many more physics courses. This is very different from most first year physics courses which, for most students, are the last time in their lives they will receive any physics instruction. In these courses, it is reasonable to be concerned that your students have not become Newtonian thinkers. But a student who majors in physics will have Newtonian ideas reinforced over and over for several years, and so there is perhaps less pressure to ensure they are thinking Newtonianly at the end of their first course.
What is important for these student, in the context of their entire degree, is that they become well trained in all three pillars of physical reasoning: theory, experiment, and numerical computation. In my own undergraduate experience, I spent many hours each week developing myself as a theorist, and many hours each week in the lab developing myself as an experimenter throughout the entire duration of my degree. Numerical computation was relegated to a single course in a single semester taught by the math department without any explanation for how numerical analysis might be used by physicists. So, we would like to fix this problem and instill students with the idea that being able to solve problems by programming a computer is as important to your training as a physicist as being able to analytically solve problems, or make careful experimental measurements. Like analytical problem solving, or experimental methods, numerical techniques should be introduced early and reinforced throughout the entire duration of the degree program.
So, it is good to teach numerics to first year students, even if it temporarily sets back their education in physics concepts like Newtonian mechanics. The important thing is finding the right balance, and using the time you spend well.
The third blog post in the series, has even more troubling news for us. Caballero developed an instrument to assess the student’s attitudes toward computational modelling. This instrument is a series of questions which probe various aspects of attitudes, and the student answers are compared with answers given by experts at computational modeling. So, it produces a measure of how “expert-like” the students have become over the course of instruction. But, the results from this instrument are negative.
In particular, students after instruction had less personal interest in computational modeling, agreed less with the importance of sense-making (the third bullet above), and agreed more with the importance of rote memorization (last bullet above).
These results remind me of how students attitudes toward physics and science often shift to becoming less expert-like after most physics courses. Learning is shaped like a U, with an initial decline in performance as knowledge is getting restructured.
If some negative progress early on is a normal part of learning computational physics, perhaps we shouldn’t be too concerned, given that this isn’t the only course they will take. After all, the grand plan is to keep developing each student’s ability at computational physics regularly over the course of 4 years. So, if the bottom of the U occurs after the first semester, there is still plenty of time to spend on getting the students to climb up the slope of the other side of the U over the next three years of computational physics instruction. By the end of that, they should be more expert-like than when they started school, even if they experience a dip somewhere in the middle…at least according the the U-shaped learning idea. If most of the students in a course will never do another physics course, leaving them at the bottom of the U is probably a bad idea. But, with students who are majors, the final state of the student brain is what it looks like at the end of the entire degree, not at the end of the first semester of instruction.
Unfortunately, it may be a long time before we can really start thinking about the efficacy of entire degree programs in a truly evidence-based way. What PhD student is going to want to research a whole 4-year degree for their thesis project?! For the moment it is very frustrating that in trying to move forward, you have actually taken a step backward and have to look for excuses that make you feel good about knowingly taking that step backward.
Now, I’m going to take a close look at the types of errors made by the students Caballero worked with and figure out how they might inform our computational physics instruction. I’ll post more as the brilliant insights come to me.
June 23, 2011
We can show evolution taking small steps in the labs. But evidence for large evolutionary steps is unfortunately a bit rarer. This leads some non-experts to deny that small evolutionary steps can compound into large changes over time. So, it’s interesting to explore some of the important evolutionary milestones in the lab. One of those milestones is single celled organisms -> multicellular organisms. New Scientist is reporting that this step has been observed with Yeast in the lab.
Sure enough, within 60 days – about 350 generations – every one of their 10 culture lines had evolved a clumped, “snowflake” form. Crucially, the snowflakes formed not from unrelated cells banding together but from cells that remained connected to one another after division, so that all the cells in a snowflake were genetically identical relatives. This relatedness provides the conditions necessary for individual cells to cooperate for the good of the whole snowflake.
After a few hundred further generations of selection, the snowflakes also began to show a rudimentary division of labour.
June 22, 2011
June 19, 2011
Ben Goldacre (of Bad Science fame) and some colleagues have done some research into the reliability of health claims made in UK newspapers. The results suggest that newspapers have a lot of misleading information.
The vast majority of these claims were only supported by evidence categorised as “insufficient” (62% under the WCRF system). After that, 10% were “possible”, 12% were “probable”, and in only 15% was the evidence “convincing”. Fewer low quality claims (“insufficient” or “possible”) were made in broadsheet newspapers, but there wasn’t much in it.
June 19, 2011
Wouldn’t it be nice to know what the weather is going to be like next week? What the stock market is going to be like tomorrow? What the housing market is going to be like over the next decade?
This BBC Radio 4 episode of discusses how accurate experts are at making predictions. It turns out they are not any more accurate than random chance. It may seem like they get a lot of things right, but if we don’t keep careful records, we may be selectively remembering their hits better than their misses.
So, what can make an expert better at predicting?
According to experiments, a few of the experts have modest predictive abilities. These experts were characterized by a willingness to be honest about their uncertainties, using numerical, probabilistic terms, and getting regular, precise feedback.
There does seem to be a different kind of style of thinking in some experts which is much more cautious…These people tend to be a lot better at making predictions.
Don’t trust an expert who is certain about the future. They tend to be only as good as chance and they are unlikely to improve as the feedback comes in.
October 17, 2010
Gambling, by careful design, is a losing proposition whenever you are not the ‘house’. But, it takes some familiarity with statistics and critical thinking to see what’s going on.
This clever game helps you understand why you shouldn’t go to McDonalds just to play their Monopoly game. You choose a prize you want to win and the game buys fictional Big Macs for you until, according to the official odds of winning and a statistical model, you win the prize. Afterwards, you get to know how many calories you consumed and how much money you spent playing the game.
You might get lucky and win the prize using less money than you spent at McD’s. But, much more often, you will learn that a cheaper contest is to go to a store and pay for the prize directly. You will have plenty of money left over to buy some balloons and champagne to celebrate your victory!
Many countries have no purchase necessary versions of popular contests.
October 8, 2010
Science strives to collect the best tools for collecting and evaluating evidence and making inferences. During this process, some tools are found to be broken and are discarded: Intuition, personal experience, authoritative dogma, eyewitness accounts, magical reasoning. None of these ways of knowing form an acceptable basis for argument in science because they are known to be unreliable. Unfortunately, people wandering by the tool shed of science are rummaging through the pile of discarded tools, hoping to find something useful.
Science is not the only way that us humans try to understand our world. There are other domains of inquiry which hope to comprehend spirituality, the purpose of the universe, ethics, the meaning of life, and the role of government, to name a few. Perhaps these tools which were turned away by science still have a place as we try to understand the unscientific realm.
There are many issues which are not easily dealt with by science. It is not clear how to define the terms, and it’s not clear how to make measurements. It’s not clear that some issues are even approachable to science. In this unscientific realm where notions are vague and evidence is lacking, it is very difficult to know what things are true and what things are false. From a scientific perspective, it seems that we have to throw up our hands and say that no conclusions can be reached.
But, does this mean that topics such as ethics, or spirituality are the domain of personal experiences, intuitions, and feelings? After all, personal experiences are anecdotal, intuitions are unreliable, and feelings are subjective, according to science. These ways of knowing are ancient tools which have been banned from the realm of scientific inquiry. Is it possible that these tools, which fail on scientific topics, are still relevant and useful when discussing nonscientific topics?
If this were true, it would imply that there is something special about scientific topics. For example, perhaps scientific topics are more difficult for our brains to comprehend than spiritual topics. If this were true, it would make sense that we need to protect ourselves from getting fooled with elaborate tools while we were doing science, even though we could let our guard down while doing theology.
But, there is nothing special about scientific topics. Our non-scientific tools are not failing because we are applying them to solve problems which are too hard. Our tools are failing because they never worked in the first place. The real problem is not with the nature of the problems we try to solve, scientific, or nonscientific. The problem is with the human mind. A small computer made of firm, pink tofu is simply not as good at comprehending the complexities of the universe as it perceives itself to be.
The result is a perception of reality which is plagued by biases, fallacies, and illusions. We see patterns where none exist. We see magic where there is only misunderstanding.
Science is not just one idea, and it is not just one way of knowing. It is a collection of ideas and tools that humans have found useful for understanding. They are not just appropriate for understanding forces, or cells, or chemicals, they are our tools for understanding every aspect of our world. In fact, the word science encompasses the full set of tools that are believed to be reliable; if there is a tool which can demonstrate its reliability, that tool is adopted into the set, and when a tool is found to be unreliable, it is removed from the set. So, the only tools for understanding which are not scientific are the broken, discarded ones, or new ones which have not yet proven themselves.
So, what does this mean for the topics of human inquiry which are not accessible to our scientific tools? How do we understand things when we can’t perform controlled experiments, make careful observations, and collect systematic evidence?
When a question comes up and the scientific toolbox isn’t equipped to answer it, we shouldn’t disgrace ourselves by rummaging through the pre-scientific tools that have been rightly banished from the realm of scholarly inquiry. We don’t get to manufacture truth from our gut, or our intuition. We don’t get to choose our favourite authority figure to tell us what reality is like. What we need are *new*, *scientific* tools for dealing with these questions. Ones that aren’t already known to be broken.
The reality is that there is no unscientific realm of inquiry. Humanity has always been trying to figure out what is true and false about reality. And, we have always done it by looking at various kinds of evidence and trying our best to make sense of it. We must do this in all of our inquiry, whether we are asking about science topics, or about non-science topics. It is true that our tools don’t probe into every dark corner of our understanding, but don’t be fooled into thinking there are other tools that do.
Whatever you base your understandings on, the only respectable position to take is to be honest about the limits of your understanding. None of us understands anything beyond the evidence
which is made available to us, and the models we formulate to account for that evidence. Oh, you’ll tell yourself you understand things better than that, but never believe yourself; you’d be placing your trust in firm, pink tofu.